Bear fund managers warn against short sales

Here’s an interesting article from Bloomberg. I don’t agree with it, but then again I didn’t make 74% returns last year, nor do I run a multi-billion dollar fund.

Steven Leuthold, whose Grizzly Short Fund makes money for investors by betting companies will fail, says he wouldn’t invest in his own fund now because the U.S. stock market is close to bottom.

Leuthold, who helps manage $3.2 billion as founder of Minneapolis-based Leuthold Weeden Capital Management, told investors to keep money out of the Grizzly fund last week; it rose 74 percent in 2008. He joins Bill Fleckenstein, who shut a 13-year-old bearish fund in December, and Marc Faber, who covered bets against U.S. stocks, in talking down short selling.

Leuthold says the Standard & Poor’s 500 index, which has lost 54 percent since October 2007, may rise 40 percent this year because the U.S. economy won’t fall into a depression and stocks are the cheapest they have been in 24 years.

“I personally would not have an investment in the Grizzly fund because I think we’re so close to a major market bottom,” said Leuthold in an interview. “Every investor ought to be considering putting money into equities.”

Short sellers can profit from falling stock prices by borrowing a stock and then quickly selling it. If the prices then fall, they only have to pay back the stock at the lower price, pocketing the difference.

SP 1,000?

The first simultaneous recessions in the U.S., Europe and Japan since World War II pushed the price of the SP 500 as low as 10.2 times earnings from the past year, the cheapest since 1985, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. About $1.2 trillion in bank losses tied to subprime mortgages sent financial companies in the SP 500 down 82 percent from the February 2007 high, making them the cheapest relative to book value, or assets minus liabilities, since Bloomberg began tracking the data.

Leuthold, 71, said investors have become too concerned about the economy. Comparisons between the current slump and the Great Depression are exaggerated, said Leuthold, who predicts the SP 500 will rally to at least 1,000 this year.

Fleckenstein, president of Seattle-based Fleckenstein Capital Inc., says that while stocks may advance in coming months, they’re likely to lose the gains as the recession worsens and unemployment climbs.

The 55-year-old investor, who plans to open a fund that bets on both stock declines and gains later this year, said if he were managing a fund today he would be “doing a whole lot of nothing” and would have few short sales.

So what am I invested in? I still think gold and oil stocks will outperform in the long run. I’m also shorting a few companies that I think will go bankrupt. One of them is a American College Communities (ACC), which provides luxury student housing. They bought an awful lot of real estate at the peak. Check out this great analysis at Stripnomics blog.

You Can’t Spend Your Way Out of the Crisis

WSJ had an interesting article on New Zealand Prime Minister, John Key. A former foreign-exchange trader, he takes supply-side approach to the global recession.

“We don’t tell New Zealanders we can stop the global recession, because we can’t,” says Prime Minister John Key, leaning forward in his armchair at his office in the Beehive, the executive wing of New Zealand’s parliament. “What we do tell them is we can use this time to transform the economy to make us stronger so that when the world starts growing again we can be running faster than other countries we compete with.”

That idea — growing a nation out of recession by improving productivity — puts Mr. Key and his conservative National Party at odds with Washington, Tokyo and Canberra. Those capitals are rolling out billions of dollars in stimulus packages — with taxpayers’ money — to try to prop up growth. That’s “risky,” Mr. Key says. “You’ve saddled future generations with an enormous amount of debt that then they have to repay,” he explains. “There is actually a limit to what governments can do.”

In the 1980s, New Zealand’s government implemented a wide-ranging program of economic liberalization, including deep reductions in tariffs and subsidies, and privatization of state-run industries. The plan, nicknamed “Rogernomics” after then-Finance Minister (now Sir) Roger Douglas, was akin to Reaganomics, and the island nation grew smartly.

But while the U.S. and Australia broadly continued their economic liberalization programs under both right- and left-wing governments, New Zealand didn’t — until now. Over the past nine years, Helen Clark’s left-wing Labour government rode the global economic expansion and used the revenue surge to expand government welfare programs, renationalize industries, and embrace causes like global warming. As a result, the economy stagnated while Australia took off.

Mr. Key’s program focuses first on personal income tax cuts, which — given that the new top rate, as of April 1, will be 38% — are still high, especially when compared to Hong Kong and Singapore. “We just think it’s good tax policy to lower and flatten your tax curve,” he says. “People will move in labor markets and they look at their after-tax incomes.”

Cutting the corporate tax rate — which is now 30% — isn’t as crucial just now as keeping liquidity flowing, Mr. Key argues. “A lot of [companies] won’t pay tax if they don’t make money,” he reasons. “So they might be slightly less focused on corporate tax in the immediate future. Longer-term, they will be.” Why? Corporate money is “mobile.” “If you really are out of whack with the prevailing corporate tax rates, and there’s been a global shift toward countries lowering their corporate tax rate, then you’re not likely to attract capital, or you’re likely to lose capital.” Mr. Key and his coalition partner, the ACT Party — Mr. Douglas’s party — want to eventually align personal, trust and company tax rates at 30%.

But ultimately, Mr. Key says his biggest fear is rising inflation on the back of rising money supplies. “Economic theory will tell you that inflation is going to rise — and that inflation will be exported around the world. . . . In the short term, I’m not criticizing U.S. policy: I think inflation is probably the thing that’s going to be necessary to get them out of the current issue. [Federal Reserve Chairman Ben] Bernanke sort of signaled that. But longer term, inflation is cancerous to your economy.”

Another person who agree that spending doesn’t help bring us out of the recession is Peter Schiff. He thinks that reducing the size of the government is what will do that job. He also think that letting the big financial firms fail would actually help the economy!

Global Economic Recession: Coming To A Town Near You!

Gerald Celente runs The Trends Research Institue and has been analysing economic news and data and predicting trends for over 20 years. He advocated buying gold in 2001 when it was under $300/oz and has been accurate in a lot of his predictions.

Right now he’s predicting a revisting of the Great Depression era with huge vacancies in commercial real estate, large amounts of unemployment, a spike in gold prices. He also thinks we’ll see a surge in crime rates and a tax revolution with a revolt against property taxes first followed by school taxes. He thinks Obama’s promise for change is hokum and has no faith in his economic stimulus plans. On the bright side, he doesn’t believe this is the end of the world and says that a new technological revolution similar to the internet in the early 90s will bring us out of it.

Check out this very interesting video:

One person who obviously doesn’t believe him is Elliott Spitzer. He just bought a $180 million office building in Washinton DC, just down the street from the now infamous Mayflower hotel. He paid about $42 million in cash for this acquisition!

Eliott Spitzer is quoted as being optimistic about the real estate market!

Detroit’s Median Home Price Is $7,500

According to the Chicago Tribune, Detroit Median Home Sales Price was $7,500! No, I didn’t forget a zero at the end. That’s probably less than what you paid for your car!

So should you rush out and buy a home there?

A house that costs $7500 might make a pretty good investment. Assuming you can rent it out for $250/month, your net return will be in the double digits. But will you really make any money in Detroit?

It’s economy has been slipping for the past 40 years with negative job and population growth. Even the median salary has been dropping for 20 years.  The city’s bond rating is at Junk status.  The city has “only islands of prosperity amid a dismal landscape”.

Right now, it appears that 1,000 people are leaving the city every month. Mayoral candidate Stanley Christmas recently joked about the 14% drop in homicide rates: “I don’t mean to be sarcastic, but there just isn’t anyone left to kill.”

Every year on halloween people roam the city looking for vacant houses and torch them. So if you are unable to rent out a house in  Detroit, there’s a chance it might be used as firewood!

So just beacause real estate is cheap, it doesn’t mean its a good investment! And if you think $7,500 is cheap, check out these real estate deals for under $5,000!