Here’s another article from Kiplinger’s,Goodbye Condo Mania saying that the South Western Florida Condo market is done.
Just as I thought, all this bad news about builders had the opposite affect. The stock i’m short on [via fixed-risk put positions] was up today even after everyone and their mother is claiming that the florida condo market is dead. WCI was up today for no apparent reason. Probaby a short squeeze since its a heavily shorted short.
Or maybe people are thinking that the single-digit PE levels make home building stocks a good buy. Thats just the market lulling them into a false sense of security. I’m going to maintain my short positions. I have 5 months on 1 contract and 17 on the other. Home sales slow down in the fall and winter so I’m pretty sure the stock will drop on pessimistic guidance. Plus, technically, there doesn’t seem to be any resistance down to $10, which is a good sign.
Even Toll Brothers [TOL] was up today!! Just 2 days ago the CEO said
1. The market is the worst its been in 40 years for home builders
2. He doesn’t know when its going to start to get better.
And the stock is up!
Please do not follow any of my recommendations. My stock investing record is extremely poor. Plus I haven’t even been investing nor following the markets for the past 3 years. This is just for information so you guys can look back in 2 years and agree on how bad my stock selection was!