Here’s a really interesting article. You can read it yourself and judge how accurate it is.
Did The US Treasury Manipulate The Gold Price Down?
Here’s some interesting parts of it…
On May 11, 2006, the gold price hit a 26 year high of US$719.75/oz. This represented a 50% increase from only November.
Clearly gold had reached a point of being overstretched, driven as it was by many factors including a newfound popularity amongst novice investors. A lot of this was put down to the recent availability of listed gold trading instruments. No one was particularly surprised that a correction occurred.
They were, however, somewhat taken aback by the sheer ferocity of the correction. Gold dropped 22% in five weeks. Heller noticed that, profit-taking aside, there was no change in the fundamentals that suggested gold should be in a long term boom market.
Those fundamentals have been well documented: the US deficit problem, increasing money supply, falling housing market and teetering economy; slowing growth in foreign investment in US dollar assets, and the potential switch to gold reserves; global geopolitical tension; global inflation.
In this climate the gold price collapsed. While there was a certain amount of stimulus from the world’s largest paper gold market – Comex – in altering trading limitations and margin requirements, observers were also puzzled by a large influx of physical gold onto the market.
The amount of gold sold during this period appears to be in the order of 14 million ounces. Heller notes that no party has come forth to claim such significant sales. The reality is, however, that there are very few sources that could actually hold that amount of gold. (If you took, say, an average price of US$625/oz that would equate to US$8.75 billion.)
Undeterred by the anonymity, Heller suggested the seller could be narrowed down by considering who may have been the biggest beneficiary of the sale. That, he decided, was the US Treasury. The US dollar strengthened as the gold price fell. The US Treasury is one of few contenders who would have that much gold.
The Fed is currently stuck between a rock and a hard place. It has raised interest rates 17 times in order to curb inflation and support the US dollar in the face of deficit fears. If it continues to raise rates it runs the risk of tipping the US economy, already under pressure, into recession. If it stops raising rates then US inflation could run hard (and the oil price does not look like falling any time soon). Either way there must be downward pressure on the US dollar.
If there is downward pressure on the US dollar then the gold price will rise (barring manipulation).