According to Andrew Blackman of Bloomberg:
Californian homes are overvalued by as much as 40 percent and stricter lending standards will probably contribute to “material” price declines, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs.
Prices in the state “have proven surprisingly resilient, given the severe curtailment of credit availability and rising unemployment,” the analysts said in a note to investors. “However, we believe that a downturn is imminent.”
In August, the median price for houses in California was $589,000, though economic conditions only support prices of $350,000 to $380,000, the analysts said. The average U.S. home is 13 percent to 14 percent overvalued, the report estimated.
For the past 2 and half years, I’ve been harping on about how over-priced California real estate is and how the National Association of Realtors is completely clueless about real estate cycles, valuations and trends. Here’s a funny video about David Lereah who wrote a book “Are you missing the real estate boom” right at the peak of the cycle in 2005. Lereah is Chief Economist of NAR. (Hey, maybe I should apply for that job!)