Well I lost money trying to short WCI Communities (WCI) and Countrywide (CFC) by being too early. However, I was right on the money and both stocks are less than 50% from where I tried to short them.
Apparently, even the Miami condo market is down 50% from the peak too. Check out this interesting video.
I’ve heard that water-front lots in Florida that used to sell for $80,000 are now going for only $18,000! When the market turns, land gets marked down significantly more than houses. Thats why the builders are taking significant write-downs on their land inventory and are getting rid of a lot of it, or not exercising their options to purchase land at inflated peak prices.
At some point, Miami condos are going to be selling for much less than the price to build them (replacement value). That’ll be a good time to buy them. What do you think? Would you buy a condo/house if it was 50% off?