Gold Hits $750/Oz

Posted on October 11, 2007 by Nirav

Today gold hit $750, the highest its been in 28 years. It looks like we might break the previous intra-day high of $850 within the next few months.

There was a slew of bad news today related to the housing industry and inflation worries and both oil and gold reacted by going up. I bought into GDX today which is the gold mining index. I had bought it last year, but I sold it to buy actual gold coins.

I’m still heavily bullish on gold and I think we’re still in the beginning stages of a rally. Why do I think so? Because almost everyone I know ridicules my idea of gold being a good investment!!!!

Typically, the average person does his investing by looking through the rear-view miror. He invests in whatever was hot last year or the last few years. I fell prey to that investing mindset early on in my investing adventures. I saw that tech stocks had done phenomenally over the past few years and in late 1999 I dumped all my savings (and some money I borrowed off my credit cards) into the high-flyers and subsequently lost all my money. I later found out that successful investing entails “anticipating the anticipations of others”, to quote John Maynard Keynes.

Once the popular media starts hyping up gold, then the average person will want to get in on it.

In a few years, when my friends start asking me about gold and how to buy, I’ll know its time to get out!

Till, then I’m a gold bull. I’ll take a shiny piece of yellow metal over a green piece of paper with a promise on it anyday!

Canadian Dollar Hits Parity With US Dollar

Posted on September 20, 2007 by Nirav

Today the Loonie achieved parity with the US dollar for the first time in 30 years. Five years ago, 65 cents could buy you 1 Canadian Dollar. Since then the Dollar has devalued 50% against the CAD and nearly 100% against Gold. This has been partly due to a massive increase in the number of Dollars floating around, and partly because of the low interest rates which no longer attract much foreign interest.

The 50 basis point cut in the Federal Funds rate isn’t going to save us from recession. What it definitely did do is weaken the dollar further against all major currencies.

How are you going to Hedge against a weakening dollar?

I been a strong advocate of investing in Gold and Silver for 2 years. Today Gold hit $735 after trading around around the $665 mark for the past year.

I realized that the Feds were going to drop the rate last week and put in an order to buy FXA. FXA is the CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust, an ETF that tracks the price of the Australian Dollar. Immediately after the Fed rate cut it jumped 3% and is up 4% for the week. It also pays an annual yield of approximately 5% on a monthly basis.

As the Dollar continues to weaken, I expect FXA to keep on appreciating. The question is how low do you think the Dollar will go?

New Coin Purchase

Posted on September 13, 2007 by Nirav

I recently mentioned that I made $500 dollars last month from online advertising. Rather than use that money to expand or improve my lifestyle (also knows as “buying crap”), I decided to invest it in something that has intrinsic value.

The US Dollar has losing value over the past 2 years. Just today the Dollar index dropped to its lowest recorded value of 77 and I think its going to keep on dropping. Typically precious metals like Gold, Silver and Platinum do well in times of a weak currecny.

Why do I think the Dollar will continue to weaken?
Because the economy sucks and is being manipulated in wierd ways. To quote someone quoting the late Dr. Richebacher, a smart and wealthy economist,

“All this emphasis on statistics and calculations.,” he went on, rapping his silver-handled cane on the table for emphasis, “without a proper theory, it is all nonsense. And your economists seem to have no theory at all.they just think they can manipulate the system in order to get whatever outcome they want. They think economic growth comes from consumer spending and that they can control consumer spending by adjusting lending rates. It is unbelievable that anyone takes this seriously. It is capital formation that really matters. A rich society is one with a great stock of capital. One that builds capital and puts it to work to create more capital. A rich society is not one where people consume. Just the opposite. It is not what is consumed that creates wealth; it is what is NOT consumed. Yet, all the Anglo-Saxons focus on motivating consumers to consume. And now they are consuming more than they make. I tell you, in 70 years of studying economics, I have never seen such nonsense.”

And in order to “save the economy” the FED is going to cut the interest rates, which will increase inflation and weaken the dollar. Even the Governor of the Bank of England, Gov. King said yesterday that “If central banks cut interest rates in the current environment, they run the moral risk of rekindling speculative risk-seeking, i.e. supporting the very behavior that caused the current market crisis, namely the underestimation of risk.”

A country’s currency is an indicator of its economy. If the country has a good balance sheet, positive flow of funds, a good business plan, strong leadership the currency will be strong. Right now the US has none of those qualities.

Anyway, I spent the $500 on some silver coins. Regular readers already know I like buying gold and silver coins. I bought about a dozen each of the perth mint silver tigers, 1920s Peace silver dollars & 2007 silver eagles. They’re beautiful coins, make good gifts and hopefully will continue to appreciate as the Dollar keeps losing value.

China Pulls Out The Heavy Ammunition!

Posted on August 7, 2007 by Nirav

According to the Telegraph,

The Chinese government has begun a concerted campaign of economic threats against the United States, hinting that it may liquidate its vast holding of US treasuries if Washington imposes trade sanctions to force a yuan revaluation.

Two officials at leading Communist Party bodies have given interviews in recent days warning – for the first time – that Beijing may use its $1.33 trillion (£658bn) of foreign reserves as a political weapon to counter pressure from the US Congress. Shifts in Chinese policy are often announced through key think tanks and academies.

Described as China’s “nuclear option” in the state media, such action could trigger a dollar crash at a time when the US currency is already breaking down through historic support levels.

It would also cause a spike in US bond yields, hammering the US housing market and perhaps tipping the economy into recession. It is estimated that China holds over $900bn in a mix of US bonds.

China has been subsidizing the consumption of the US consumer & homeowner to the tune of nearly $1 Trillion. They send us all kinds of stuff and in return we give them pieces of green paper that aren’t really backed by anything, except the promise to pay more of the green stuff!

And now, to appease special interest groups clamoring about loss of manufacturing jobs, our ‘faithful’ senators are trying to pass a bill enacting trade tariffs against China in retaliation for currency manipulation. The good thing about special interest groups are that they are usually represent single-agenda constituents. The politicians give them the one thing that they want, and they’re assured their vote. And if they can spread the cost of giving them the thing they desire over a large base, less people are likely complain.

In this case, the cost is higher inflation for all of us. And if China follows through with its promise, you’ll see much higher interest rates that will negatively affect the housing industry and the economy pushing us into recession.

We’re currently experiencing an economy divergence. A poor country like China is lending money to our government by buying our Treasury notes. You could say its effectively funding our government spending. This is enabling us to enjoy the low-interest environment of the past several years.

This is not a normal occurrence. Typically rich countries lend money to poor countries. This phenomena should result in a natural rebalancing of the currencies where China’s currency strengthens against the US Dollar. Given time, this will occur without any help from our politicians.

Henry Paulson, the US Tresaury Secretary, said any such sanctions would undermine American authority and “could trigger a global cycle of protectionist legislation”.

Yet another example of why the government shouldn’t interfere in economic policy. It usually never does any good, it creates friction and the burden always falls on the tax-payer.

Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton in a show of brilliance said

foreign control over 44pc of the US national debt had left America acutely vulnerable.

Great, maybe Bill can fork over the $50 million he’s made and buy up some of it.

More Carnage In The Lending Business

Posted on July 31, 2007 by Nirav

Shares of American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. (AHM) gapped down today nearly 90%!!! Thats after they already dropped from $30 to $10 last week! Despite the rebound in the market today, most home-lending companies were down. And later in the day, the market was down on AHM’s news.

I think this might be an indicator of the growing liquidity crunch. The excess liquidity that was sloshing around seems to have dried up rather suddenly. After Bear Stearns reveavled that its subprime hedge funds were worthless, it seems that everyone’s suddenly concerned that the AAA ratings issued might not really be true and the subprime debacle might spread to Alt-A and prime paper too!

John Devaney, CEO of United Capital Markets, a hedge fund that focuses on buying subprime ARM-backed securities, has been forced to sell his $23.5 million 145-foot yacht and his $16 million Aspen vacation home. Things must be really bad when you have to sell your boat and home!

It also seems that leveraged-buyout party is close to an end. The highly anticipated Chrysler/Cerberus has stalled. Even Blackstone is nearly 36% off its highs. And now it seems that Bernanke won’t bail out investors by cutting interest rates.

Looks like a real good time to be a buyer of gold coins and gold stocks!

New Million Dollar Coin

Posted on May 20, 2007 by Nirav

In part as a marketing exercise, The Royal Canadian Mint has produced a $1 million face value coin containing 100kg of .99999 pure gold.

With gold currently trading at $660 per ounce and each kilogram containing 31.1 ounces, the actual cost of the gold in the coin is worth just over $2.5 million USD!

It seems to be part of a marketing exercise to promote its .99999 pure gold Maple Leaf bullion coin. Current Maple Leaf gold coins are .9999 pure. In contrast, South African Krugerrands, while containing a full ounce of fine gold, are only .9167 percent pure with the balance made up with copper, so they actually weigh more than an ounce.

GDX Called Away

Posted on February 19, 2007 by Nirav

I’ve been selling covered calls on GDX – yes I know selling puts is the same risk-reward ratio but I usually do pretty well in selling far out options. I lost a whopping $40 than if I had outright sold them on friday. I’m hopping we’ll see a small dip in the market next week so I can buy back in at roughly the same price.

I’m thinking I might actually buy CEF or SLW (Silver ETF) instead since I think there’s a chance than silver might run up more than gold on a percentage basis this year. The markets closed today, but earlier kitco.com reported that Gold was around $672.00/oz. quite a jump in the past few months. Hopefully it consolidate before resuming its next leg up.

My GG naked puts expired worthless so I made $138.50. If they had expired in the money I wouldn’t have felt bad about actually buying the stock.

Friday Rant

Posted on February 9, 2007 by Nirav

I came across this article last night, 32 Reasons Why The Stock Market Will Jump This Year.

While its written as a serious prediction, I personally feel its more like a christmas wish list or a list of finalist answers at the Miss World Beauty Pagent!. Here are some of the gems

#1. Housing and Auto-manufacturing weakness will subside
Based on what? Major layoffs in both industries?

#5. Unemployment with stay at record lows.
Hmm…with the massive layoffs in Housing and Auto-manufacturing, you really think so?

#7. Inflation will continue to decelerate, with CPI averaging around 2.0%.
Hmm…ever since the minimum wage was jacked up, small business around where I live jacked up the price of everything along with it. That doesn’t sound like low inflation to me. Anyone who thinks that CPI is an accurate measure of inflation makes way too much money to begin with. Once you take out all the factors that cause inflation, of course you’ll be left with 2%. What a doofus.

#11. The US Dollar will firmer up and even maybe become stronger
With almost all the worlds major currencies strengthening against the USD how is this going to happen? Oh yeah, Bank of Japan is enforcing a weak Yen policy. And of course the USD will strengthen against the Iraqi Dinar! And with China owning a Trillion USD do you think a strong Dollar is actually in our interest????

#12. The U.S. budget deficit, which is currently 1.5% of GDP, well below the 40-year average of 2.3% of GDP, will continue to trend lower as healthy economic activity continues to boost tax receipts substantially more than estimates.
Uh…isn’t the US GDP is currently mainly comprised of government spending? Thats not really a show of healthy economic activity. Although it is true that the tax receipts are up more than estimated.

#15. The mania for commodities will completely end.
Yeah Right!!! All those millions of people in India and China who can now afford to buy a car and a decent place to live will choose to buy plastic go-karts and tents instead of regular cars and houses that use steel & copper. Is he completely blind to the global industrialization thats taking place? Every year China adds to its electricity generating capacity by the same amount as the entire UK. This electricity comes from coal and is used to make more cars and power more houses. The dude’s smoking crack now.

#16. Oil falls to $35 to $40 per barrel and eventually $20-$25.
#19. Gas prices will drop below $4/mcf.
#20. Gold will drop below $550 per ounce
This was written on the 1st of Feb 2007 when Oil was around $50/barrel. Its since gone up to nearly $60 and is probably on its way up. Corn has quadrupled to over $4/bushel making ethanol almost as expensive as gasoline now. Similarly Gold is also up to $665. I actually bought some GLD (the gold ETF) 2 days ago and I’m already up 7%. I predict its going to $800 in 2 years.

#17. Peace in the Middle East.
HAHAHA.

Some of the points are actually valid, but the ones I’ve mentioned are pretty stupid. Like I’ve said before, I’ve taken exactly opposite bets in my stock investing, so of course my views are out of line with the authors.

What do you think?

Bad Day For The Dollar – Great For Retailers!

Posted on November 24, 2006 by Nirav

Today was black friday and atleast in San Diego it seemed like everyone was out shopping like its going out of style. The local best buy had great deals on TVs. A buddy picked up 2 flat screens. One 32″ LCD HDTV for $475 [after a $400 discount] & another Plasma 47″ HDTV for $1000 [after a $700 discount]. Of course they only had about a dozen of these that sold out immediately but luckily we had friends camping out at various stores so with a few well placed phone calls he was able to get in on the action!

He tried to pursuade me to get one too, but I’m really happy with my 19″ regular TV! However I did buy a very nice laptop from Costco for under a $1000. The good thing about Costco is that if you aren’t satisfied you can return your purchase at any time. Apparently people have been abusing the system so for laptops the cutoff is 6 months.

Anyway, today was a particularly bad day for the dollar. It was down against most major currencies including the Euro, Yen, Swiss Franc, Aussie & NZ Dollar and Indian Rupee. Just in time to make my vacation to south east asia just a tad more expensive!

Like I’ve been harping on before, I think the easiest way to get out of the multi-trillion dollar debt is for the Feds to inflate the value out of the dollar. This will provide the necessary “soft” landing for real estate. And by soft I mean a 20-40% price drop on the coasts, as opposed to a 50-60% drop. I belive its a trend that will continue for the next year or so. This will likely result in commodity inflation while the economy experiences deflation in terms of manufactured products, squeezing margins, profitability and wages. Not a good sign. [of course, this is just my opinion and could be wrong]

Gold was also uptoday to $637 and Silver is up to nearly $13.50. Finally my gold & silver coins are coming back up in value. I bought a lot of old goin coins & a few new ones for almost the bullion price. I think my average price is around $668/oz. Not bad considering a few of them are roughly 100 years ago and 2 of them are in the 200 year range! My belief is that once gold starts its upward trend again, coins will again become collectibles and will outpace the intrinsic value of the metal content.

Got My Japanese REITs

Posted on October 19, 2006 by Nirav

Finally managed to buy the Japanese REITs yesterday. The Tokyo Stock Exchange is about 14-16 hours ahead so you have to submit it and check on it later to see if you got lucky.

I’m betting that the Yen will appreciate 20% against the US Dollar[although as moominvalley pointed out, I bought it with Australian dollars!] and that the stagnant Tokyo RE market will pick up.

On another note, the $50 amazon gift card give-away for posting on The Weekend Investor forums doesn’t seem to be taking off. I might have to put up another prize to maybe give away a ~100 year old Morgan Silver Dollar to the person with the highest posts! [login to the weekend investor and let me know if you think you need more motivation!]

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